Massive Antarctic icebergs’ split from glaciers may be unrelated to climate change

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Antarctica is losing ice quickly, in part because of climate change. Massive calving events, such as the one that formed the Delaware-sized (5,800 square kilometers, or 2,239 square miles) A-68 iceberg in 2017, can destabilize ice shelves and capture the public’s attention. But the infrequency of extreme calving events makes it difficult for scientists to predict them and understand whether they are connected to climate change.

To explore potential connections between climate change and large iceberg formation in Antarctica, MacKie et al. carried out the first long-term analysis of the continent’s biggest annual icebergs. Because such large calving events are rare and unevenly distributed, the researchers used statistical approaches specifically geared toward small datasets with long tails to look for changes in calving event frequency over time. They focused on the single largest iceberg to form each year from 1976 to 2023. These icebergs had surface areas up to 11,000 square kilometers (4,247 square miles).

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